Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
Talk
The Art of Uncertainty: planning for a future that is hard to imagine
Summary
In today’s world of profound uncertainty, traditional decision-making frameworks often fall short. Where appropriate, probabilities can help us assess well-defined events, but when facing deep uncertainty, where we cannot even imagine all possible futures, conventional methods become impractical.
This talk explores three essential qualities for navigating uncertain futures: humility, imagination, and resilience. Rather than eliminating uncertainty, it argues for building the capacity to adapt, recover, and think beyond systems optimised only for present conditions.
Speaker Bio
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. He is a widely recognised commentator on statistical issues and the author of bestselling books including The Art of Statistics and The Art of Uncertainty.
His honours include election as Fellow of the Royal Society, an OBE, and a knighthood for services to medical statistics. He served as President of the Royal Statistical Society and has also been a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority.
References
Further references will be shared during the event if required.