Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
The Art of Uncertainty: planning for a future that is hard to imagine
Summary of the Talk
In today’s world of profound uncertainty—aptly described as the “conscious awareness of ignorance”—traditional decision-making frameworks often fall short. Where appropriate, we can assess and evaluate probabilities for well-defined events, rather than relying on ‘vague verbiage’ to communicate uncertainty. But when facing “deep” uncertainty, where we cannot even imagine all the possible futures, conventional methods requiring exhaustive lists of possibilities with assigned probabilities become impractical.
This talk explores some essential qualities for navigating our uncertain age. First, humility requires maintaining openness to unanticipated events. Second, imagination allows us to envision potential futures, particularly adverse scenarios. Finally, resilience enables recovery from unexpected shocks. Both individuals and organizations need physical and mental reserves rather than systems optimized solely for current conditions.
By cultivating imagination, humility, and resilience, we can better face an unpredictable future—not by eliminating uncertainty, but by developing the capacity to adapt and recover when the unexpected inevitably occurs.
Speaker Bio
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. He is a regular media commentator on statistical issues, and was very busy over the Covid crisis. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics, was published in 2019, and The Art of Uncertainty in 2024. His career highlights include appearing on Desert Island Discs in 2022, and in 2011 coming 7th in an episode of BBC1’s Winter Wipeout.
He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, awarded an OBE in 2006, and knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics. He was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018, and has been a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority since 2020.